A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
